Ethereum (ETH) – The $1700 so crucial for the technical rebound!

The technical rebound of the prince of cryptos at the crossroads! – At the start of August, which often promises to be sluggish on the financial markets, all asset classes are somewhat catching their breath after a month of July that had kept up the slim hope that the worst could be behind we. The arguments are not lacking: possibility of a moderation of monetary tightening by the FED, easing of the rise in the dollar and consolidation of bond rates.

Quite logically, this provided a return to the risk appetite that cryptocurrencies badly needed. Among them, Ethereum (ETH), well helped by the announcement of its next Merge, in an improved development. Yet, despite the technical rebound from the $1000 support, the latest technical analysis against the prince of cryptos still confirms a stalemate in his bear run since his last ATH in November 2021.

It is to wonder if the ceiling of the price under the resistance of $ 1700 observed for a few days, we would fear a relapse. Especially since we are currently close to a crucial level for the extension of the technical rebound.

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Ethereum in monthly units – A good month of July but far from reassuring in the long term

After biting the dust all spring long, Ethereum ended the month of July in a cannonball by blowing up the resistance of $1400. At the same time, the threat below the $1000 support recedes momentarily. But the fact remains that the bullish candle does not erase the losses of the previous one in June. To read between the lines, the stigmata of the last bearish wave following the failure under the resistance of $3400, would still be omnipresent. Symptomatic of a bear run that suddenly accelerated, many cryptocurrency investors preferred to leave the ship.

Even though the price position of ETH and the Chikou Span above the Kumo (Ichimoku cloud) in monthly units could eventually console them, it is clear that there will be work to do for hope. review last year’s all-time highs. And the large gap between the Tenkan-Kijun and the price which is often synonymous with excess in one direction or the other, could take some time to be filled due to the crisis of confidence related to the latest stress blows in the cryptocurrency industry.

In the event that the Prince of Cryptos prices hang around in a price zone where there is no clear upward trend until the end of the first half of 2023, I’m afraid they are trapped below the cloud. . Hence the fear of delaying the end of the current bear run.

Ethereum in weekly units – Towards a fifth week of consecutive increases?

In the event of a close above $1680, Ethereum would continue its good series which would amount to five consecutive weeks on the rise. As we speak, however, this does not take the path. And for good reason, prices open below the resistance of $1700. Because graphically speaking, it represents one of the psychological thresholds of the last bull run.

Ethereum price analysis in weekly units - August 02, 2022

On the other hand, ETH prices are showing above the Tenkan. This technical signal makes it possible to maintain the option of crossing $1700. If this market scenario were to come true, then the technical bounce would extend in the best case up to the resistance of $2300, with an upside breakout of the Kijun. Even better, the downward line of the bear run could be put to the test.

And in the momentum of this potential upside move, price and Chikou Span positioning relative to Kumo would begin to shift. Indeed, the second would come back in contact with the Senkou Span B (SSB). However, I would have had trouble envisaging its crossing beyond the cloud given the significant thickness of the latter.

In this pattern shown on the weekly chart, Ethereum’s bear run was still relevant despite the likelihood of a crossing of the descending line. Because to neutralize the sellers, we would have to start with a high-speed return towards $3400. And given the current situation, we are far from it.

Ethereum in daily units – First difficulties below $1700

The difficulties in crossing the resistance of $1700 date from last Thursday, more precisely the day after the FED meeting. This explains the temporary cessation of the respective ascents of the Tenkan and the Kijun in daily units. Fortunately, Ethereum prices are above Kumo despite a Chikou Span that is plausibly heading inside the cloud.

Analysis of the price of Ethereum in daily units - August 02, 2022

Otherwise, the validation of the triple bottom remained a non-negligible asset in the objective of getting rid of the resistance of $1700. Especially since it would be desirable for it to build up so that the break in the bear run since its ATH in November 2021 lasts for a few more weeks. Enough to offer a three-digit technical rebound from the support of $1000 and a simultaneous passage of the prices of the prince of cryptos and the Chikou Span above the Kumo, at least in the short term.

In the interest of seeing an extension of the technical rebound, you will have understood that Ethereum must not drag too much below $1700 or else the tensions of last spring will return to the surface. This is why the next few days would prove to be decisive. And if for once, August replicates July’s upturn to a lesser extent, sellers who arrived late would be forced to buy back at a high price. In which case, we need to erase half of the losses from the last bearish wave.

However, caution will still be in order both at the fundamental and chart level. On the one hand, the current uncertainties on the financial markets are struggling to dissipate. And on the other hand, it would be necessary to get closer to $3400, or even $4000 to stifle the bear market. Not to mention that the worrying trajectory of the future Kumo on the weekly chart, forces us to refrain from any scenario mentioning a favorable trend reversal throughout 2022, or even in the first months of 2023. With the fear that the last phase of the bear run would arrive in September, a month notorious for risky asset classes.

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